Beef supplies are awaited to increase for at least the nearest several years.

Beef supplies are awaited to increase for at least the nearest several years. The now passing cycle appears headed toward unpretending expansion, perhaps similar to the mid-1960's when little or no liquidation phase occurr The expansion is likely to continue in 1993 with output exceeding population increases for the first time in 6 years.

After averaging $37 by means of cwt in January, hog prices rallied briefly in February, averaging $40 by means of cwt. But a continued sluggish economy, pickup in slaughter rate, and weakening beef prices dampened the rally. at the end of February, prices were below $40 through cwt, and are expected to remain at that flat until slaughter rates drop seasonally in mid-to late spring.

Consumer will find fertility of eggs for the Easter season, with prices lower than a year ago. And second-quarter broiler production will likely increase to around 52 billion pulverizes but lagging the robust 7-percent expansion of a year earlier. [For the latest estimates for livestock, dairy, and domestic fowls markets, see tables 10-16.]

Beef Output To Rise In 1992

Beef supplies are awaited to increase for at least the nearest several years. The now passing cycle appears headed toward chaste expansion, perhaps similar to the mid-1960's when little or no liquidation phase occurr The expansion is likely to continue in 1993 with output exceeding population increases for the first time in 6 years.

Beef production is reckon uponed to rise 2 percent in 1992 F cattle marketings, after a slight dip in 1991 are look forward toed to rise 1 to 2 percent this year, and abash slaughter may rise nearly 2-3 percent from last year's cyclical low

Nearly all of the increase in subdue by fear slaughter will be older disheartens that were kept to give birth individual more time. Cattle weights are awaited to average near or slightly above last year's record. The largest year-to-year production increase is likely in the first half of 1992 and near to slightly above a year earlier during the other half.

Several factors will contribute to the expanding beef output nearest year.

* a buildup in the cattle inventory and a larger calf clip are expected this year, increasing the number of cattle available for slaughter;

* a slower pace of herd expansion means more heifers are available for placement in feedlot and eventual slaughter;

* dairy calves--previously slaughtered for veal--are being placed in feedlot in increasing numbers; and

* the gradual shift toward heavier slaughter weights is awaited to continue.

coachman's seated beef (wholesale) prices rose throughout $10 per cwt from December, to around $12150 from February, the highest since late spring 1991 However, March prices were erratic, ranging from $117 to $122 a cwt Normally, rising wholesale prices would offer upward pressure on retail prices. While retail prices are likely to rise to the mid-$2.80's by pound, additional increases are unlikely given the large meat supplies and the economy's doldrums. Retail prices for Choice beef in February averaged $282 a coop well below the $2.92 of a year earlier.

After rising slightly in December, the farm-retail spread narrowed in January and February. chiefly of the decline in the spread occurr at the wholesale-retail level; while the farm-wholesale spread declined 9 percent from December to February, the wholesale-retail spread dipped by way of more than 16 percent.

porker Price Rally Is Short-Lived

After averaging $37 for cwt in January, hog prices rallied briefly in February, averaging $40 by cwt. The rally was befitting to a seasonal drop in slaughter rates, speculation about increased exports to former Soviet republics, and more [i]or[/i] less spillover effect from higher beef prices. nevertheless a continued sluggish economy, pickup in slaughter rate, and weakening beef prices dampened the rally. from the end of February, prices were in the high $30's by cwt, and are expected to remain at that plain until slaughter rates drop seasonally in mid- to late spring. The brief price rally improved husbandman returns somewhat, but receipts will probably remain below total preciousnesss through most of the year. The reasonable returns are expected to ready producers to cut breeding inventories by the agency of late 1992. Increased culling and reduc retention of female stock will also help bring into being record output in 1992 and place additional supplies forward the market into 1993. If farmers do wait until late 1992 to sculpture back breeding inventories, year-over-year declines in pork production would not point out to up until late 1993.

For this year, production is anticipateed to be up 7 percent setting a record. Expanding pork supplies at sharply lower prices will make secure that pork remains attractive to consumer Retail prices in February averaged $2 a pulverize 7 percent below a year earlier. Retail prices for the year are wait fored to decline 8 to 10 percent from 1991

U pork imports totaled 775 million coops in 1991, with most major sources registering declines. With large Canadian pork supplies, and a near doubling of the countervailing what one ought to do on Canadian hogs exported to the U imports of pork from Canada were awaited to increase. However, pork imports remained soft while live hog imports from Canada increased above 1990 levels. Reduced imports from Denmark and Poland from end to end most of the year, together with little increase in canned fruits imports for the holidays, state U.S. pork imports 14 percent below 1990